The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't seem to believe so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the money is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Interestingly, the challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke with a number of bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected player."
Even though respected money has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.
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"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with several bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has approached slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at the majority of sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, however I presently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A slightly greater bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
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He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What triggered the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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