The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, offering plenty of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to believe so. A minimum of in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely respected player."
Although respected money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are piling on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually approached somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at many sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
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So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before respected money pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A slightly higher bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some respected money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The total has actually increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What triggered the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
utzphilomena1 edited this page 2025-01-02 12:38:33 +08:00